A Victory for Short-Oriented Research

July 9th, 2014

Seeking Alpha, a web-based research platform, recently won a decision in the NY Supreme Court protecting the anonymity of a short-oriented contributor from the legal wrath of the targeted company.  The decision is positive for Seeking Alpha and for short-financed research providers, but does little to dampen the risks associated with the short-and-shout business model.

In February, Seeking Alpha published an article by pseudonymous contributor using the name Pump Terminator which savaged a small biotech firm, NanoViricides (NNVC).  Among other things, the article said that NNVC was “offensively similar to the China RTO frauds”, claimed that the company’s two principals had “stolen all potential value in NNVC from public US shareholders” and that NNVC was a “worthless shell where shareholders own virtually nothing.”

NNVC sued to compel Seeking Alpha to reveal the identity of Pump Terminator so that it could bring a libel claim against the author.  The NY Supreme Court dismissed NNVC’s petition on the grounds that the article was the author’s opinion and therefore protected as free speech.

For its part, Pump Terminator disclosed in its Seeking Alpha profile that it was a hedge fund manager and likely had a short position in NNVC: “Please assume PT currently has a short position in any common stock mentioned.”  However, because the action involved libel, disclosure was not at issue.

Libel is one of the vehicles available to vindictive companies spurned by short-oriented researchers.  In 2005, Overstock.com sued Gradient Analytics, a forensic research firm, for libel.  Gradient was not as successful as Seeking Alpha in getting the suit dismissed and ultimately had to settle. Andrew Left, the principal behind Citron Research, has been sued multiple times for libel and defamation.

Securities fraud and stock manipulation are the other legal weapons.  Gradient Analytics had the misfortune of being sued for stock manipulation by Biovail and both parties ultimately settled.  Canadian regulators have accused Muddy Waters contributor Jon Carnes of producing a fraudulent report on Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM), an action which is still pending.

After the negative report on NNVC was released, NNVC’s share price dropped from $4.60 to around $3.  Presumably, the short seller authoring the report was able to cover its short position at a profit.  NNVC’s share price has recovered to around $4.

As we have noted previously, the short-and-shout business model can be lucrative, albeit fraught with legal risks.  Seeking Alpha won a victory in this case, but it is a sure bet there will be more cases to come for short-oriented research.

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Wall Street Layoffs Slow in June, But Second Half Picture Not Rosy

July 7th, 2014

Layoffs at many Wall Street firms slowed in June as often happens during the summer.  However, the employment outlook for the financial services industry doesn’t look so bright as we look to the second half the year as many banks continue to struggle with declining profits brought on by low volatility, weak volumes, and underperformance in their fixed income trading units.

June Challenger, Gray & Christmas Report

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ monthly Job Cuts Report released last week, the financial services industry announced a 22% decline in planned layoffs during June of 897 jobs from 1,151 in the previous month.  The drop in the number of planned job cuts last month was also 46% lower than the number of layoffs announced in June of 2013.

Supporting the improvement seen in June, Wall Street firms have announced 42% fewer layoffs on a year-to-date basis — 21,478 layoffs so far this year – compared to 36,762 job reductions announced during the same period in 2013.

However, planned hiring at financial services firms has remained tepid as no new hiring was announced in June following no new hires announced in May.  This weakness is borne out by the fact that year-to-date hiring plans at Wall Street firms remains sluggish as 54% fewer new jobs have been announced so far in 2014 when compared to the same period in 2013.

Major Industry Moves

While the employment picture looks improved in June, we are not so sure that the rest of the year will continue in this manner as weak Wall Street 1st Qtr earnings announcements could prompt a new round of layoffs in the second half of the year at a number of investment banks.

One firm that is said to be mulling over a new round of layoffs is Goldman Sachs.  Goldman is said to be weighing a formal announcement about the size and scope of potential cuts in their ranks of fixed income traders unless conditions improve.  Some experts say these cuts could exceed the 10% in staff reductions that often takes place at large investment banks.

Last month, JP Morgan CFO Marianne Lake said that the firm might be forced to implement staff cuts and/or compensation reductions in its investment banking division due to a slowdown in trading conditions.  Ms. Lake did not give any time frame for such a move.

As we have mentioned in the past few months, Barclays has been planning a major right sizing effort in its investment bank.  Barclays started its planned staff reductions by eliminating 100 jobs across its investment banking and markets business in early June – a cut which represents approximately 5% of the firm’s Asian-based investment banking workforce.

Impact for the Research Industry

It appears that the real weakness at Wall Street firms has been in their fixed-income trading units and not in their cash equities or M&A businesses.  All of this should enable most firms to retain their existing research staffs – at least for the time being.

However, Wall Street management is likely to be a little nervous about their trading divisions as the first quarter typically represents the strongest period for trading.  Consequently, we suspect that many on Wall Street will be watching their trading activity closely to see if a rebound takes place as the year progresses.

If sell-side firms continue to experience weakness in their trading businesses into the second half of the year, we would not be surprised to see Wall Street firms scale back staff in other areas of their banks, including their research divisions.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

MSCI Nabs GMI Ratings Bargain

July 2nd, 2014

MSCI Inc. is acquiring GMI Ratings, an ESG research provider, for $15 million in cash, representing a bargain price of about 1.5x revenues.  The transaction price signals we are still in a buyer’s market for acquisitions despite recent improvements in the market environment.

GMI Ratings was formed in 2010 through the merger of three ESG research firms:  The Corporate Library, GovernanceMetrics International and Audit Integrity.  One of the objectives of the merger was to obtain critical mass for a sale.  However, the merger presented both technical and cultural challenges as the three firms integrated products and staff.   The firm has had three different CEO’s in the three and a half years since the merger.

MSCI’s ESG unit, which operates as a wholly owned subsidiary MSCI ESG Research Inc, is itself a collection of smaller ESG firms:  KLD and Innovest, which were acquired by Riskmetrics, and IRRC (Investor Responsibility Research Center) which was acquired by ISS prior to its purchase by Riskmetrics.

Meanwhile, MSCI has spun off two related properties: ISS and CFRA, a forensic research firm.  ISS was sold for $367 million, representing about 3x revenues.  Terms for the CFRA sale were not disclosed.

It is likely MSCI has entertained thoughts of spinning off its ESG unit, and may ultimately do so.  However, unlike with ISS and CFRA, MSCI maintains indices tied the intellectual property in the ESG unit.

We estimate GMI’s revenues as being between $9 and $10 million, and profit between $1 and $2 million.   This suggests a revenue multiple between 1.5x and 1.7x and an EBITDA multiple around 10x.

The low multiples suggest that the sellers of GMI were more motivated than the buyer.  For MSCI, the acquisition adds critical mass to its already significant ESG unit, making it the largest independent source of ESG research.  However, the business has lower margins than MSCI’s core index business and its ultimate place in MSCI’s portfolio remains in question.

ESG research has been the coming thing for many years now.  It has been especially hard for ESG research firms to get traction in the US, where asset owners less concerned about sustainability issues than their European counterparts.  Demographics and climate change support the case for future growth in the demand for ESG research and perhaps MSCI will have the patience to wait for it.  Getting a bargain price should help steady its nerves for the duration.

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Buy Side Investors Unlocking the Value of the Web

June 30th, 2014

While the amount of data available on the internet has been exploding at an exponential rate in the past few years, many on Wall Street have been hesitant to adopt web-based information in their research or investment processes primarily because of the amount of noise surrounding this data, as well as valid compliance concerns.

The following blog is an excerpt from a recently released white paper by a “big data” based research and data provider called Eagle Alpha called Discovering the Web’s Hidden Alpha addressing how the buy-side is currently using the web to find unique and profitable investment ideas.

White Paper Excerpt

While Wall Street may be lagging behind other industries in making the most of online information, research by Gnip (a Twitter subsidiary) suggests that the adoption of social data analysis in the financial industry is at the beginning of an inflection point and is set to accelerate rapidly in the near future: “In the past 12 months, we’ve seen both an escalation in the number of new firms embracing and innovating, as well as early adoption by some of the larger somewhat risk-averse players in the industry”.

Seth Mc Guire, director of business development at Gnip said that they provide “over a dozen” large quantitative hedge funds (with minimum $1bn AUM each) with the entire Twitter firehose. Rob Bailey, CEO of Datasift (the only other authorized reseller of all of Twitter’s data), said that even before launching in 2011 they received a number of calls from hedge funds and investment banks who wanted access to social media feeds8.

Brunswick, the financial communications firm, conducted a 2014 survey; “Investor use of Digital and Social Media”. From a sample of 472 buy-side investors and sell-side analysts across the US, Europe and Asia they found that 70% of investors believe that digital media will play an increasing role in future investment strategy. Just over a quarter of respondents had based an investment decision on information sourced from a blog, and about 15% from micro-blogging sites like Twitter or its Asian equivalent, Sina Weibo9.

Clearly certain buyside firms are already making use of online sources of information to create competitive advantage but who are they and how are they doing so?

Only a few notable exceptions have broadcasted publicly how they have incorporated social media analytics or curated web content into their investment process, including Bridgewater Associates, Artemis, AKO Capital and Mediolanum Asset Management.

Bridgewater have publicly disclosed that they leverage web information for real-time economic modelling. This macro hedge fund uses all tools at their disposal to “track the economy on a day-to-day basis” and “to be really on the pulse of what’s going on”. This includes social media data, real-time internet price data and search engine data.

Analyzing web data they search for equivalents of traditional macro indicators. Greg Jensen, Bridgewater’s co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer has said that they use sites like Amazon India to track inflation “during a balance of payment crisis on a moment-to-moment basis” and thus can tell if any sharp currency moves have filtered down to end prices. Another application mentioned by Jensen is monitoring auto sales by listening for every time someone says that they buy a new car on Facebook or Twitter and comparing this to official statistics released periodically10.

Hedge funds are not the only economic agents using online data to gain a relevant and timely understanding of economies. Central banks are using Google search data in a similar way. A study published in 2009 by two MIT professors, Erik Brynjolfsson and Lynn Wu, found that it is possible to predict US house prices and sales with search volume data11. Brynjolfsson recognized the significance of this for policy makers: “When central bankers were looking at traditional data, they were essentially looking out the rear-view mirror.” Since their study, many central banks around the world have done their own studies and used web data to assess their national economies 12.

The Bank of England monitors online search data as part of the range of different indicators it considers in forming its view about the outlook for the economy of the United Kingdom, in particular for the housing and labour markets. They find that searches for “job seekers allowance” can help predict unemployment data.

The Bank of Israel was one of the first central banks to use search data for policy making. It analyses keyword counts to gauge consumer demand before official statistics are released. The bank computes a monthly index that reflects the health of the economy which is considered before setting Israel’s benchmark interest rate.

The Federal Reserve have researched how internet search data can forecast financial market data, finding it useful to “now-cast”, or forecast the trajectory of refinancing applications filed by homeowners through searches for “mortgage refinance”.

The Bank of Japan investigated using search data and point-of-sale records to create a new index of economic indicators that would be updated daily or weekly, instead of monthly.

The Banca d’Italia’s working paper deals with the predictive power of Google searches in forecasting unemployment.

The Banco de Espana used search data from the UK to predict tourism towards Spain by analysing travel-related queries.

Economists from the Central Bank of Chile found that an increase in people browsing for cars predicted an increase in auto-sales.

The applications of web data and information are in the early stages of discovery, but are set to be crucial to real-time understanding of economies.

Other hedge funds and asset managers are sourcing information from the web to gain a competitive advantage. Artemis, a UK-based fund manager with £18.6 billion in AUM, differentiates itself by its use of social media data when raising assets under management for the Artemis UK Growth Fund and the Pan Euro Hedge Fund. As we see in the slide below, to their traditional four pillars of portfolio and security selection they have added social media. They seek specific company colour insights from the web.

Tim Steer, Equity Fund manager at Artemis, remarked:

“Social media is an increasingly important part of understanding companies, particularly as traditional sources of information on companies have become quieter: Closer regulatory scrutiny means that companies are more cautious with information disclosure, and investment analysts are providing ever less insight. Adding this new element to my investment process has helped raise AUM”.

AKO Capital LLP ($9.4 billion AUM) broadcast on their website that social media research is incorporated into their investment strategy. In fact they specifically hired a “social media analyst” who performs in-depth equity analysis based on information from the web. Eagle Alpha currently employs 11 research analysts who can complement the work of an internal social media analyst.

Mediolanum Asset Management have similarly integrated social media into the investment process. This graphic shows how they leverage information from Google Trends, Twitter and investment blogs as an important step in the process of identifying opportunities.

A Senior Portfolio Manager of Mediolanum Asset Management explained further:

“Med3® utilizes a combination of fundamental and technical analysis combined with an appreciation of investor sentiment and positioning to determine where an asset is in its investment cycle. For the latter we invest with the momentum until the sentiment becomes extreme and this is where we take a contrarian position. We have a number of sources for determining investor positioning and sentiment including fund flows, institutional and retail surveys. We also leverage the web to determine sentiment in the markets through Twitter. We also utilize Google trends to analyses whether the frequency of news stories on a topic has become so extreme as to indicate a potential inflection point”.

High frequency traders leverage information from the web. As mentioned previously, the Associated Press “hash crash” revealed that, as well as scanning news sources, HFTs are scanning social media, like Twitter. In just two minutes the tweet drove 140 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Download Eagle Alpha’s complete white paper here  http://eaglealpha.com/whitepaper_pdf.

About Eagle Alpha

Eagle Alpha (www.eaglealpha.com) was founded in 2012 by a former Morgan Stanley investment banker, Emmett Kilduff.  Since 2012 Kilduff has built a world-class team of employees, investors and advisory panel members that brings together experience from companies including Barclays, Cairn Capital, Cantor, CQS, Credit Suisse, HSBC Asset Management, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Knight Capital, Macquarie, Markit, MergerMarket, Morgan Stanley, Oaktree and Schroders.

A key differentiator of Eagle Alpha is that they curate the entire web. While Twitter provides breaking news and insights from analysis of the 15 billion tweets each month, there are also great opportunities to find actionable insights elsewhere on the web. For example, Eagle Alpha sources intelligence from hundreds of forums, thousands of blogs, millions of websites, LinkedIn, Facebook, Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Fed Scrutiny of Capitol Hill Leaks Hampers Political Intelligence Biz

June 25th, 2014

In the past few weeks, news stories have highlighted that regulators are continuing to scrutinize the leaking of valuable information regarding health care policy on Capitol Hill – a development that could have had a bearish impact on the political intelligence business.

House Staff Under Investigation

Recently the SEC and federal law-enforcement officials have been reportedly trying to obtain records from the House Ways and Means Committee and a top congressional health-care aide about whether congressional staff tipped off hedge funds about an April 2013 change in healthcare policy.

Separately, the Justice Department issued a subpoena to Brian Sutter, staff director of the committee’s health-care subpanel, to compel him to testify before a federal grand jury at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York related to criminal and civil investigations into this matter.

Late last week, the SEC took the unusual step of going to federal court in an effort to enforce the subpoenas it issued to the House Ways and Means Committee and Mr. Sutter to turn over documents and information in the case.  In its court filing, the SEC said the healthcare aide “may have been” the source for the information at the heart of its long-running insider-trading investigation.

So far the house has refused to comply with the subpoenas, arguing that they “run seriously afoul of the Constitution’s Speech or Debate Clause”, and that they were vague and overly broad.  The SEC disagreed with the House’s objections. U.S. District Judge Paul Gardephe ordered representatives of the House committee and Mr. Sutter to explain why they refused to comply with the subpoenas by June 26th and to appear at hearing on July 1st on the matter.

While federal agencies have occasionally subpoenaed Congress in the past, it is highly unusual for an agency to actually sue Congress to comply with their subpoenas.

Hedge Funds Scale Back Washington Info Gathering

The most recent tussle between the SEC, DOJ and Congress is reflective of broader regulatory scrutiny into how hedge funds obtain nonpublic information about Washington policy moves to enhance their trading profits.

The most recent case has taken place in response to the passage of the 2012 STOCK Act, which clarified that employees of the government are barred from providing nonpublic information obtained as a result of their jobs to others who can benefit by trading on this information.

Rob Walker, an ethics lawyer and former congressional-ethics attorney, explained the reason why many asset managers have become nervous by these developments, “The SEC is trying to make a test case, and you don’t want to be it.”

In response, many hedge funds and other asset managers have either eliminated or dramatically reduced their use of Washington policy research, lobbying firms, or other sources of potentially risky “political intelligence” information.

As a result, many lobbying firms or traditional research providers that have historically provided this type of information and analysis have found that demand for their services have decline sharply in the last few years – prompting some of them to scale back or shutter their operations altogether.

Some Research Firms Transform

However, a few research firms have responded to these market pressures by changing the way they collect information in Washington.  One such firm is VogelHood Research which has developed a data-driven quantitative approach to analyze how potential legislative and regulatory actions might impact investment decisions.

Alex Vogel, one of the founders of the new research firm, was formerly a lobbyist who had built a successful business providing investors with insight about Washington policy developments which could have a significant market impact.

Vogel explained the reason for making the shift, “The market has been demanding the change.  The combination of dramatically increased access to data via growth in transparency, and the increased compliance burden on the old access model made the change obvious to us.”

Instead of collecting information from conversations with congressional aides, agency officials, or other lobbyists, VogelHood Research has developed quantitative models which produce policy predictions based on the growing availability of public data, such as campaign donations, lobbying expenditures, congressional voting records, and polling data.

Summary

We expect that the fight between regulators and Congress will continue in the months to come as the SEC continues its investigation into government leaks of a change in healthcare policy which led to significant investment gains by a number of well-heeled investors.

In addition, we suspect that many hedge funds will limit their use of lobbyists and policy research firms to collect information on potential market moving policy changes for fear that they could get caught up in a “test case” brought by federal law enforcement officials.

Consequently, we would not be surprised if some lobbying firms or research providers that collect traditional political intelligence information either scale back their businesses, or like VogelResearch, change the way they collect information and produce their research insights.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Transforming the Way Research Is Bought

June 23rd, 2014

UK regulators are changing the face of the research industry.  Here are two related articles: the latest news on regulatory actions and an insightful commentary from a UK based broker.

FCA to Release Review Results

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) gave notice that it will publish its long-awaited ‘thematic review’ of commission usage on July 10th.  We don’t expect major surprises, but the review results will set the tone for the FCA’s negotiations with European regulators on MiFID II.

From November 2013 to February 2014, the FCA conducted a supervisory review examining both asset managers and sell-side brokers to examine current market practices and business models linked to the use of dealing commissions.  Because the final policy statement on the use of dealing commissions was more stringent than the draft version, we inferred that the review hardened the FCA’s position.

The FCA will hold a meeting with selected industry representatives when the review results are published to outline the thematic findings and “set out our current thinking on the way forward”.  Save the date.

Dealing Commission Reform Vital to Transparency

The following is a guest commentary from Nicholas Dray, Manager of Independent Research & Commission Management at Marex Spectron, a London-based broker which introduces independent research to asset managers.

The way that firms treat dealing commissions and ensure transparency in the reporting of research costs will change significantly following a recent policy statement by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

On May 8, the FCA published its policy statement on the use of dealing commissions which clarified its definition of what could be considered ‘substantive’ research and consequently eligible to be paid for via trading commissions. The regulator’s plan is to reduce conflicts of interest inherent in the bundled research and execution model and ensure the best value possible is achieved for investors. Central to this is the regulator’s aim that investment managers seek to control the costs passed on to their customers with as much rigour as they pursue investment returns.

The policy statement reiterated their stance that corporate access cannot be funded from dealing commissions, while bundled services and mixed-use assessments are subject to guidance and while judgements by firms are likely to make different assessments of the value and price of eligible services, the onus will fall on investment managers to demonstrate that the judgements were made with the best interests of clients at the forefront of the decision.

Investment management houses are now obligated to produce a clear research policy which will form part of their marketing material. The changes are incorporated in amended Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) requirements pertaining to the use of dealing commission (COBS 11.6)  and came into effect on June 2nd.

Marex Spectron’s Independent Research & Commission Management team recently hosted a breakfast seminar which focused on the changes to research valuation and treatment of dealing commissions. Attended by over 25 buy-side firms, the seminar allowed interested firms to participate in a wide-ranging discussion on the implications of the FCA’s policy statement prior to the imminent implementation of the new regime.

Speakers included Neil Scarth from Frost Consulting, a consultancy focused on equity commission unbundling and related market structure/regulatory change, , and Peter Allen, Managing Director of Lombard Street Research who spoke in his capacity as Co-Chair of Euro IRP, an industry association for Independent Research Providers (IRPs).

Scarth highlighted the need for investment managers to place a value on the research they pay for via commission while noting that the FCA accepts that the same research can be worth different amounts to different funds. He sees the key requirements on investment managers now include the need to 1) decide on which research products and services will be used, 2) determine whether they meet the FCA’s substantive guidelines, 3) develop a research budgeting and valuation process and document it and, finally, 4) ensure that accurate records of all these processes are kept as evidence of the judgement-based obligations now imposed on managers.

In our view, the FCA’s findings have been drawn within the context of the objectives of MiFID II, where the underlying theme is improved transparency and fairer treatment of clients. While we remain confident that a ban on research commissions for the procurement of research remains the FCA’s ‘nuclear’ option, we are aware that a Thematic Review on Competition in the Research Market will be released later this year [now scheduled for 10th July, ed.] – the review of the use of dealing commissions is not over.

Marex Spectron believes that the policy statement will lead to further take-up of CSA models by the buy-side as they seek to demonstrate transparency in their research spending. Rewarding research providers who provide a substantive research service with competitive pricing will make them more attractive to investment managers who will be looking to demonstrate sound judgement in the research services they take.

Central to this concept is the ability to accurately and transparently manage all dealing commissions, a service that the team at Marex Spectron have offered for many years. Recently, we have enhanced our CSA offering by offering a market-leading Commission Management platform to our clients in conjunction with our execution services. The platform is a fully-integrated online portal which allows clients to easily and transparently manage their dealing commissions across all their panel brokers via one sophisticated interface.

Marex Spectron sees the benefits of increased transparency in pricing and that buy-side houses who adopt will add value to their clients.  We see this as an opportunity for Independent Research to continue to steal market share from the bulge-bracket.  The continued pressures on research budgets will force Investment Managers to look outside the traditional avenues for ideas. Further pressure on research departments within the sell-side will probably result in further reductions in both headcount and coverage.

Marex Spectron is one of the world’s largest privately held brokers of financial instruments in the commodities sector and a leader in facilitating trade in physical energy products. It also offers brooking services covering a broad range of financial products. Marex Spectron’s Independent Research & Commission Management Desk specialises in introducing IRPs to the buy-side on a case-by-case basis. Introductions are made only after ensuring IRPs are of the highest quality and of complete relevance.  As well as the introductory service, Marex Spectron manages Research relationships on behalf of the buy-side, including all administrative aspects such as fee negotiations, invoicing, renewals and service T&Cs.  Marex Spectron also focuses on analysing the ongoing regulatory research framework and the changes affecting the research industry in general, particularly in light of the recent FCA’s review on dealing commissions.

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Equities League Tables

June 18th, 2014

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan had the highest market share for U.S. cash equities trading, according to the latest Greenwich Associates survey, with Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse close behind.  Divergence between the Greenwich trading market shares and research rankings reflect the reality that commission flows do not always follow research value.  The Greenwich results generally correspond with reported equities revenues from the investment banks, but the first quarter rankings differ.

U.S. Cash Equities Market Share

According to the Greenwich survey, Bank of America Merrill Lynch had 8.5% U.S. cash equity trading market share followed by 8.3% market share for Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, yet Greenwich assigned a first place tie to all three firms.  Greenwich said that Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse each had trading market shares of 7.8%.

The Greenwich survey was conducted between December 2013 and February 2014, incorporating interviews with  225 U.S. equity portfolio managers, 815 buy-side equity analysts, and 316 U.S. equity traders.  The survey is primarily focused on large long-only asset managers.  Greenwich’s summary results can be found here: https://www.greenwich.com/greenwich-research/research-documents/awards/2014/jun/usei-2014-qsl.

Divergence from Research Rankings

The Greenwich trading market shares differed from the research rankings assigned by portfolio managers and analysts.  This is not an uncommon result for asset managers which conduct internal broker votes.  Success in the internal broker vote does not always translate into commensurate commission volume.

In the case of the Greenwich survey, J.P. Morgan topped the research rankings from both portfolio managers and analysts, yet did not have the highest trading share according to the poll.

The research rankings also differed between portfolio managers and analysts, with PMs ranking Credit Suisse’s research fourth, but analysts not ranking Credit Suisse research in the top seven at all.  Not surprisingly, the PM research rankings have a greater correspondence with the ultimate trading share.

Ranking Reported Equities Revenues

The survey results correspond to our own league rankings for reported equities revenues, although for the first quarter Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse were the top three firms for reported equities revenues, followed by J.P. Morgan and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

.                                                     Source: Integrity Research Associates

Reported equities revenues are global, not U.S. specific and they include revenues from derivatives trading, prime brokerage, and equity securities lending.  For those few firms which provide detail on cash equities results, cash equities is the largest component, representing 40%-50% of total equities revenues.

Comparing results from the prior year, Morgan Stanley’s equity sales and trading revenues grew 16% from the first quarter of 2013, reflecting increased client activity across all equity products and “particularly strong performance in prime brokerage.”  Conversely, Goldman Sachs declined 17% from the prior year, but much of that decline was explained by the sale of their Americas reinsurance unit in 2013.

Global equities revenues for the top ‘bulge’ investment banks represented $11.2 billion in revenues, down -4% from the prior year.

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Wall Street Suffers Plunge in Equity Volumes & Volatility

June 16th, 2014

Despite the pickup in equity commissions seen in 2013, Wall Street is now experiencing a sharp downturn in equity trading volume and volatility over the past few months – factors that could lead to a decline in equity commission revenue in the 2nd Quarter of 2014.

Volume and Volatility Plunge

Since April 1st, 2014 average daily trading volume in stocks that comprise the S&P 500 continues to slip and is now 17% below the level seen in the 1st Qtr of the year.  As a result, equity trading volume in these bellwether stocks is now 29% below the average trading volume seen over the past five years.

Another factor which drives equity trading commissions is volatility in the stock market.  Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to a six-year low in early June, leaving the VIX 40% below its 10-year average.

One factor which could be contributing to the decline in equity trading volume are the roll out of the Volcker Rule which has limited proprietary trading and risk taking at Wall Street banks.  In addition, recent press and regulatory focus on high frequency trading could also be drying up volume from this group of market participants.

Consequently, we expect that equity commission revenue is likely to shrink during the second quarter of 2014.  Fortunately, equity commissions are a small part of the revenue pie at many of the large Wall Street banks, excluding Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley that generate 20% and 21% respectively from equity sales and trading.

IPO Volumes Remain Robust

The good news for most Wall Street firms is the fact that investment banking revenues are likely to more than offset the weakness seen in equity commission revenue in the second quarter.

According to data collected by Renaissance Capital, IPO Volume so far this year has surged 40.9% to 25.8 bln when compared to the same time frame in 2013.  In addition, IPO volume in the second quarter of the year is up 44.3% to $15.3 bln from $10.6 bln seen in the 1st Qtr 2014.

The improving domestic economy, rising confidence among CEOs, and continued record low interest rates have all combined to fuel very strong activity in the U.S. IPO market so far this year – a trend that is likely to continue for the remainder of the year.

Potential Impact on Research Biz

Falling equity commission revenue caused by weak trading volumes and a drop in volatility will result in smaller commission balances at buy-side firms which can be used to pay for sell-side and alternative research providers.

This is likely to have the most immediate negative impact on firms heavily reliant on trading commissions to be compensated for their research, like boutique firms with trading desks or those that have a large number of broker vote clients.  Alternative research firms that have a significant portion of clients pay them in hard dollars won’t feel the pinch – at least not at first.  On the other hand, larger sell-side firms that also have investment banking businesses will be shielded from the worst of the drop in equity commissions.

Hiring in the research business probably won’t see too much of an impact in the near term as most firms won’t respond to a one quarter drop in commission revenue.  In fact, we would not be surprised to see some sell-side firms boost analyst hiring to be able to keep up with the strong gains in IPO volume.

Summary

Recent US equity volume and volatility data suggests that equity commissions are likely to dip in the second quarter of 2014, despite posting a double digit gain last year.  These trends will have a negative impact on the revenue of some research providers – particularly boutique broker dealers who rely on trading desks and the broker vote to get paid.

However, the most important issue is whether this trend will continue into the second half of the year, as the longer that equity commissions slip, the more pronounced an impact will be felt in the research industry.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

US Commissions Up 11% According to Greenwich

June 11th, 2014

U.S. equity commission volumes increased 11% during the year ending February according the latest Greenwich Associates survey.  ‘High-touch’ commission rates used to pay for research also increased modestly.  The survey confirms an improved U.S. commission environment over the last year, a welcome relief from five years of steady commission declines.  The positive trend carried into the first quarter of this year, but the second quarter is looking less robust.

Commission Rebound

Greenwich’s annual U.S. Equity Analyst Study estimates that U.S. cash equity commissions increased to $10.34 billion from $9.3 billion for the 12 months ending February 2014.  We estimate that the portion of commissions allocated to research/advisory grew even faster, approximately 16% from $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion.  According to Greenwich, 80% of the overall commission increase came from spending on research and other related services.

Sources: Greenwich Associates, Integrity Research Associates

Higher Commission Rates

Survey respondents also reported that ‘high-touch’ commission rates, which are used to pay for proprietary research, increased from an average of 3.53 cents per share to 3.58 cps as of February 2014.  The increase is small, but breaks the steady decline from the pre-crisis rate of 4 cps.

Greenwich Associates expects the modest increase in high-touch commission rates to continue into 2014, but views this as a recovery to historical norms rather than a long-term upward trend.

Falling Bulge Market Share

Bulge bracket investment banks have continued to lose research market share, according to the survey.  Greenwich tracks 9 bulge bracket firms, 47 smaller broker dealers including regionals and specialist independent research firms, and 19 independent research firms not organized as broker dealers.

In 2007 the bulge bracket had a 78% share of trading and 71% share of research. As of February, the bulge bracket shares have dropped to 64% of trading and 53% of research, with mid-sized/regional brokers, sector specialists and independent research firms benefiting.

Note that the spread between bulge trading share and bulge research share has widened over the last 7 years.  Commission management platforms have helped the bulge firms maintain a larger share of overall commission spending (64%) despite the continued erosion of research market share (currently 53%).

2014 Commission Environment

Although billed as a 2014 report, the Greenwich survey largely reflects the 2013 commission environment.  Nevertheless, the upbeat commission environment extended into the first quarter based on our reading of bulge bracket equities revenues.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Credit Suisse Group

Market volumes have been trending down during the second quarter, however, with May registering the lowest trading volume on major U.S. exchanges since 2007.  If desultory volumes continue, it will not bode well for continued improvement in commission spending during 2014.

Outlook

Greenwich expects continued improvements in commissions and rates to ‘historical norms’.  This is an appealing prospect for research providers, but by no means a slam dunk.  On the plus side, hedge funds are a bellwether for research, and continued growth in hedge fund AUM is bullish for commissions.  We expect this trend to continue to be a positive for research.

Another driver of commission growth has been equity allocations.  We have seen increasing allocations to equities from bonds by asset owners.  Unfortunately, that trend is largely behind us.

We suspect that some of the U.S. commission improvement has been fueled by tapering insider trading prosecutions.  We’ve seen a massive rebound in expert network usage over the last eighteen months, and we think that is symptomatic of PMs and analysts getting back to work after an extended compliance freeze.

The larger trends are negative.  Asset allocations continue to shift from active to passive management, which we believe is one of the fundamental drivers of commission declines.  Electronic trading will likely resume a growth trajectory as buy-side (and sell-side) trading resources are constrained, increasing pressure on commission rates.  Regulators, led by the FCA in the UK, are increasingly pressuring commission spending, including bans on payment for corporate access through commissions.

While the commission losing streak has been broken, a major upswing in commission spending is unlikely.  We expect commissions to be up slightly for the year, with worries on whether the uptrend can continue to 2015.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader

Wall Street Jobs Picture Improves Modestly In May

June 9th, 2014

Wall Street firms experienced a modestly improved jobs picture in May as fewer layoffs were announced due to a slowdown in the recent rightsizing trend among investment banks.  However, this does not portend a rosy outlook for the financial services industry since banks remain cautious about bringing on new staff.

May Challenger, Gray & Christmas Report

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ monthly Job Cuts Report released last week, the financial services industry announced a drop in planned layoffs during May of 1,151 jobs.  This is a 72% decrease from the 4,124 planned job cuts announced in April.  However, the number of planned job cuts last month remains 390% higher than the number of layoffs announced in May of 2013.

Another piece of evidence that the jobs picture is improving on Wall Street is the fact that financial services firms have announced 41% fewer layoffs on a year-to-date basis — 20,581 layoffs so far this year compared to 35,091 during the same period in the previous year.  This suggests that the pace of right sizing in the financial services industry might finally be turning around.

Despite this improvement, planned hiring at financial services firms fell 100% in May as no new hiring was announced during the month from 350 new jobs announced in April.  In addition, the number of new May hiring plans represents a 100% drop from the meager 69 new jobs announced in May of the prior year.  This weakness is borne out by the fact that year-to-date hiring plans in the financial services industry remain weak as 54% fewer new jobs have been announced so far in 2014 when compared to the same period in 2013.

Major Industry Moves

As we warned last month, Barclays Plc’s eventually announced that it plans to slash 7,000 jobs at its investment bank between now and 2016, signaling that its effort to build a global bank has come to an end.  This is in addition to the 12,000 job cuts that the lender announced it would make in February of this year.

In May, the Royal Bank of Scotland PLC announced that it would slim down its trading operations at its Stamford CT headquarters, cutting costs and refocusing its business on its home UK market.   RBS is planning to shed 400 jobs across its US business over the next 18 months in order to prepare for new banking regulations which are expected to go into effect over the next year.

Although no job cuts have yet been announced, a number of bank analysts have warned that JP Morgan Chase, which currently employs over 250,000 worldwide, could announce massive layoffs in the next few months due to increased regulatory pressure and a squeeze on bank profits.  Some suggest that CEO Jamie Dimon could announce a new round of layoffs totaling as many as 10,000 jobs.  These analysts also surmise that Dimon may decide to throw in the towel given the extensive regulatory oversight that the industry is facing, and that JP Morgan has had to deal with in the past year.

Bullish Developments for Industry Employment

Despite the negative impact of new regulations, a few developments should be seen to be constructive for Wall Street’s near-term employment outlook.

Globally, business conditions continue to improve and corporations are holding significant cash reserves so M&A activity is likely to continue to increase, supporting increased staffing at investment banking departments.  In addition, the regulatory changes which are pressuring banks, have also boosted the hiring of compliance and risk management professionals by banks, broker-dealers, and hedge funds.

Relevance for the Research Industry

While improving, the employment outlook on Wall Street is nothing to get excited about – at least not for the research industry.  Improvements seen in firms’ cash equities business earlier this year, and a pickup in M&A activity should support existing research staffs.

However, despite a rising equity market, trading volumes were extremely weak in May.  A continuation of this slowdown, on top of the regulatory pressures that banks are facing, could keep a lid on new hiring of analysts or research sales staff.

As a result, we remain cautiously optimistic about the employment outlook in the research industry. Unfortunately, the fundamentals of the market don’t look like they will support a robust pickup in hiring anytime soon.

 

Subscribe to Integrity ResearchWatch by Email or  in an RSS/XML reader